Who will win the La Liga title in 2022-23? Which clubs will qualify for the Champions League and which will give up to survive next summer? We can speculate, but our trusty supercomputer has gone further and analyzed the data for you. Here’s what he spat out.
La Liga season Season Predictions: The Quick Results
Favorite titles: Real Madrid, [a big gap] then Barcelona and Atlético Madrid
Top 4: The above plus Villarreal
Relegation: Real Valladolid, Girona and Mallorca
Our supercomputer is sufficient. Smug after successfully predicting England would win the European Women’s Championships earlier this summer. Too smug, if you ask us, so we put him back to work and asked him to calculate every permutation of what he thinks La Liga will look like in May 2023.
And to be fair, he did a good job last season with La Ligaoutlining where each club will finish position by position, as well as their chances of winning the title, qualifying for the UCL and being relegated to Liga 2.
He has a reputation to match in Spain. Here are the fruits of his labor for 2022-23:
Let’s break down some of the biggest storylines.
La Liga title prediction
The supercomputer predicts with 58.1% confidence that Real Madrid will win the title again, emerging victorious from fierce rivals Barcelona. Victory this season would be Real’s third title in five years and their 36th top-flight Spanish crown overall. Even sweeter for madridistas is that it would take Barcelona’s title drought to four years and mark its longest spell without success since the turn of the millennia.
Xavi’s men are then favored by the supercomputer at 18.6%. He hopes a summer of frantic transfer activity will be enough to put his side back on top. Who knows, that 18.6% might start to climb when (if?) they successfully register their new recruits.
There is a world in which Getafe (0.04%) and Valencia (0.03%) win La Liga in 2022-23. But let’s be honest, it’s probably not where we live.
Who will qualify for the Champions League?
At 95.4%, Real Madrid are virtually guaranteed to play UCL football next season. Likewise, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid at 78.4% and 71.7% are almost blocked. Then it starts to get very interesting.
Sevilla (48.5%) and Villarreal (48.0%) are basically a coin toss to qualify for the premier club football competition. But while qualifying for the UCL is difficult, overall these teams have a 78.8% and 78.3% chance of playing European football at some level. So yes, Sevilla will win the Europa League and if they don’t it might be Unai Emery who wins something again in Europe.
At 24.2% and 20.7% respectively, Real Sociedad and Real Betis are outside shots to crack the top four.
Who will be relegated from the league?
*swallows* the list no one wants to be on.
This is bad news for two of the three newly-promoted teams as Girona (39.2%) and Real Valladolid (33.7%) look set for the drop. They managed to avoid the ignominy of being predicted to finish bottom, however. That dubious honor belongs to Mallorca, who finished 16th last season, just one point above the relegation zone. The supercomputer reckons they won’t fare as well this time.
The third promoted team, Almería, is actually only the model’s seventh favorite team to go down.
Elche and Cádiz, the latter having flirted a lot with relegation last season, are also in precarious positions at the start of the season.
Predicted La Liga positions in 2022-23
1. Real Madrid
3. Atletico Madrid
7. Real Betis
8. Athletics Club
11. Celt of Vigo
14. Rayo Vallecano
18. Real Valladolid
How does the supercomputer model work?
• Stats Perform’s league prediction model estimates the likelihood that teams will finish at each position in the competition. So we can see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, be it relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) using betting market odds and team rankings from Stats Perform. Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance.
• The model takes into account the strength of opponents using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining matches of the competition thousands of times. By analyzing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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