Revealed: FiveThirtyEight ‘supercomputer’ predictions for Carlisle United this season

Carlisle United will have to defy the stats pundits if they are to have a memorable season in League Two.

The Blues are expected to finish in a modest 19th position by the top scoring players.

This is their placement predicted by the calculations of the “supercomputer” of statistical analysts FiveThirtyEight.

They released their latest updated predictions for the fourth tier after the last round of matches.

And while Paul Simpson’s Blues currently sit in 12th place after a strong start, data modelers predict a fall in the division.

READ MORE: How football and Carlisle United played after the death of King George VI in 1952

They have Carlisle finishing with 54 points – just one more than last season – and just one place higher in the table than in 2021/22.

They should finish with a goal difference of -13.

United’s predictions come despite Simpson leading the Blues to two wins, three draws and one defeat in their first six matches.

If the Blues had beaten Grimsby Town in the game which ended up being abandoned, they would currently be seventh or eighth.

FiveThirtyEight have Salford City top of the table as champions, ahead of Leyton Orient and Mansfield Town.

The play-off spots are taken by Doncaster Rovers, Northampton Town, Stevenage and Swindon Town.

The bottom two spots, meanwhile, see Rochdale and Hartlepool United tipping for relegation.

Carlisle has a less than one percent chance of winning the title and a three percent chance of automatic promotion.

Their play-off chances are rated at 7%, while the risk of relegation is 14%.

FiveThirtyEight says its predictions are based on a revised version of ESPN’s Soccer Power Index, a scoring system devised by Nate Silver in 2009.

Ratings are said to be the best estimate of a team’s overall strength, including offensive and defensive ratings, which reflect a team’s abilities against an average opponent on neutral ground.

United’s compatriots Cumbrians Barrow are expected to finish 11th by data pundits.

This is despite an impressive start from Pete Wild’s side, who sit third after five wins and two losses in their first seven Ligue 2 outings this campaign.

Carlisle currently fluctuates between 40/1 and 50/1 with the bookmakers for the title, 10/1 for promotion, 15/2 to make the play-offs and 8/1 for relegation.

The Blues are due to return to action at Mansfield Town on Tuesday night, after all matches on Saturday were postponed following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

For more details on FiveThirtyEight predictions, click HERE

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