It has been a tough week for Scottish clubs in Europe.
Rangers and Celtic face an uphill battle if they are to maintain their place in the Europa League defeats.
Steven Gerrard’s men were first and they followed a first day loss to impressive Lyon at Ibrox with a slow 1-0 loss to Sparta Prague.
Back in Glasgow, Ange Postecoglou’s men had a miserable evening as they were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen at Parkhead 4-0.
This follows a demoralizing 4-3 loss to Real Betis in Sevilla.
This leaves both Scottish Premiership teams scoreless so far in their respective Groups A and G campaigns.
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FiveThirtyEight’s boffins no longer offer any hope of a team reaching the bottom 32.
In fact, they expect the best-case scenario to be a third place and a place in the Europa Conference League.
This season, the teams that finish third in the group stage enter the newly created competition.
After failing to reach their pace neither domestically nor in Europe for Celtic, Leverkusen and Betis are expected to claim the top two places.
Those calculating the numbers narrowly gave Parkhead’s side the edge over Ferencváros, with a 54% chance of qualifying for the Conference League.
They had only a 7% chance of somehow escaping the squad after the Bundesliga blows.
For the Rangers, the odds are slightly more optimistic given their recent exploits in the competition.
After a run for the champions until the last 16 in the previous two campaigns, they offer a 34% chance of being able to repeat it.
However, Lyon and Sparta are the top two coveted.
Gerrard’s men sit third over Brondby for the ECL spot, with just a 20% chance of continuing their European adventure into the new year.