Following such a massive win at the weekend, Coventry City’s hopes of qualifying for the Championship play-offs have understandably increased.
To win 4-1 at home on any day is great, but to do it against a promotion rival like Sheffield United, who have been in such great form in recent months, was truly special.
It was a signal of intent from the Sky Blues as they are now just three points off the top six, 10th in the Championship table on 54 points.
With 10 games to play and 30 points remaining, Coventry City look very likely to be in the running at the end of the campaign – but can they fend off fierce competition to reach the play-offs?
We referenced advanced analytics to find out, using predictions made by FiveThirtyEight’s ‘supercomputer’ – or, rather, it’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), which rates teams after every game and predicts how they will end the season.
Teams generally need at least 70 points to have a chance of qualifying for the play-offs, and the SPI sets the bar at 72 points this season.
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He predicts Coventry won’t be among those teams, however, with Huddersfield Town (75 points), Sheffield United (74), Luton Town and QPR (both 72) finishing in the top six, along with Bournemouth (84) and Fulham (95) finishing second and first respectively.
The SPI expect City to finish exactly where they currently sit in the table – 10th. He also predicts that Mark Robins’ team will end the campaign with 68 points.
Although this is Coventry’s best points tally in a second-tier campaign tally since 2001/02, when they picked up 66 points in their first year out of the Premier League, it would see them fall short of their target. ultimate.
This currently gives the Sky Blues a 19 per cent chance of qualifying for the play-offs and a 6 per cent chance of promotion to the top flight.
Curiously, City’s chances have dropped slightly since last time out CoventryLive visited the SPI rankings at the end of the January transfer window.
At the time, City were expected to finish 10th on 67 points – one point less than expected this week – but gave the team a 20 per cent chance of finishing in the top six and a 7 per cent chance of promotion.
The next two months will determine how correct these data-driven predictions really are…