Supercomputer predicts where Everton will end their Premier League relegation battle

Frank Lampard’s side ended a four-game losing streak in the most dramatic fashion against Newscatle United before the international break.

Everton have been backed by data experts FiveThirtyEight to avoid relegation and maintain their status as the oldest top team in English football.

The company uses complex statistical analysis to predict the outcome of matches, formulating a predicted final table with each team’s percentage chance of various finishing positions.

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And the Toffees’ dramatic win at home to Newcastle United before the international break seemingly gave Frank Lampard’s side the boost to avoid the drop, with the analysis giving them a 32 per cent chance of going down.

The victory, courtesy of a 99th-minute strike from Alex Iwobi, gave Everton 10 vital three-pointers and a huge morale boost – it also reduced their relegation chance percentage by 38%.

The supercomputer predicted Everton would pick up 11 points from their remaining 11 games, taking them to a final 36 – good enough for 17th.

That’s two points clear of Burnley – taking the final relegation spot – and Sean Dyche’s men had a 51 per cent chance of relegation.

Watford (83%) and Norwich (over 99%) have received little hope from data experts, while Leeds United (23%) are far from sure – Brentford (7%) and Newcastle (4%) would need a disaster to fall into the bottom three.

More good news for Everton fans further up the table too, as the computer gave Manchester City a 62 per cent chance of overtaking Merseyside rivals Liverpool to the Premier League title, Jurgen Klopp’s men to finish two points behind City.

Chelsea and Arsenal are set to complete the top four, with Spurs and Manchester United set to take the two Europa League spots.

Where Everton can pick up the points

Eleven points in 11 games is no easy feat for a team that is averaging 0.93 points per game and still has four of the top six to go.

But, short of Wolves defeat, the Toffees have been brilliant at Goodison Park and will see home games against Brentford and Crystal Palace as entirely winnable.

And while their away form under Lampard has been dismal, there’s no better time to turn the tide than against relegation rivals – Everton have Burnley and Watford to play away from and could do with. wins in both.

Wins in those four games give Everton 12 points and while it’s obviously not that simple, there will also be plenty of opportunities to take points away from inconsistent teams like Manchester United, West Ham and Leicester.

A quick look at Leeds can give Everton an idea of ​​just how important a good double-game week is, and with West Ham and Burnley both playing in the space of four days, they can increase that percentage. .

Whole predicted table

1. Manchester City 91 points

6. Manchester United 63 points

9. Leicester City 51 points

10. Aston Villa 49 points

11. Crystal Palace 47 points

12. Southampton 45 points

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